August 2014 Commonwealth of Australia 2014


Appendix C – Detailed workforce planning results



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Appendix C – Detailed workforce planning results


The results below show the supply and demand for dentists, oral health practitioners and dental prosthetists for selected years to 2025, as well as the input parameters on inflows and exits that were used to generate the supply projections. All results are presented in terms of headcount. This allows for an estimation of the required number of students or practitioners at each stage of the pipeline to be generated. However it should be noted that underlying the headcount results is a full-time equivalent measure that represents the current and projected reported hours of work of each age cohort in the relevant workforce. Because of the process to generate these results, the headcount demand figures can vary from those presented in the comparison scenario (although not by a material amount).

Dentists


Tables 51 to 58 show the supply and demand for the dentist (including dentist specialists) workforce for selected years to 2025, as well as the input parameters on inflows and exits that were used to generate the supply projections.

Table : Dentists, comparison scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,659

16,789

19,624

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.76%

2.25%

2.09%

Demand

12,770

13,815

14,919

16,312

Excess/Shortfall

SP

844

1,870

3,312

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, medium self-sufficiency scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,564

16,344

18,383

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

65

62

44

Skilled Migration

118

103

84

59

Temporary Migration

177

155

125

89

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.78%

2.31%

2.23%

Demand

12,770

13,815

14,919

16,312

Excess/Shortfall

SP

750

1,425

2,072

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, productivity scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,659

16,789

19,624

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.76%

2.25%

2.09%

Demand

12,770

13,568

14,439

15,496

Excess/Shortfall

SP

1,091

2,350

4,128

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, low demand scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,659

16,789

19,624

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.76%

2.25%

2.09%

Demand

12,770

13,356

13,999

14,812

Excess/Shortfall

SP

1,303

2,790

4,812

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, high demand scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,659

16,789

19,624

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.76%

2.25%

2.09%

Demand

12,770

14,987

17,269

20,143

Excess/Shortfall

SP

-328

-480

-519

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, undersupply scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,659

16,789

19,624

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.76%

2.25%

2.09%

Demand

13,422

14,465

15,571

16,966

Excess/Shortfall

-652

194

1,218

2,658

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, oversupply scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

13,408

15,195

17,313

20,044

Domestic Graduates

441

656

749

749

International Graduates

111

74

87

87

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.46%

2.68%

2.20%

2.14%

Demand

12,770

13,815

14,919

16,312

Excess/Shortfall

638

1,380

2,394

3,732

SP: starting point

Table : Dentists, graduate reduction scenario, 2012 to 2025, headcount



Category

2012

2016

2020

2025

Supply

12,770

14,576

16,383

18,809

Domestic Graduates

441

590

674

674

International Graduates

111

67

78

78

Skilled Migration

118

118

118

118

Temporary Migration

177

177

177

177

Exits (%)

4.47%

2.77%

2.30%

2.16%

Demand

12,770

13,816

14,931

16,333

Excess/Shortfall

SP

760

1,452

2,476

SP: starting point



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