Where is demand likely to grow? Industry



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WHERE IS DEMAND LIKELY TO GROW?
Industry
Areas of industry growth hold significant implications for all TAFE NSW provision. In relation to mature age students, the gaps that currently exist also foreshadow the types of incremental pathways that will need to be developed to support those with low level skills and qualifications towards intermediate skill sets and qualifications.
Table 1: Top ten fastest growing industries

compared with current TAFE NSW mature age enrolments


Industry

TAFE NSW Field of Study

1. Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

1. Access

2. Accommodation Cafes Restaurants

2. General Education

3. Health and Community Services

3. Business Services

4. Property and Business Services

4. Building Services

5. Education

5. Primary Industry

6. Personal and Other Services

6. Information Technology

7. Finance and Insurance

7. Hospitality Services

8. Transport and Storage

8. Administration Services

9. Cultural and Recreation Services

9. Fine Arts

10. Communication Services

10. Electrotechnology


Source: NIEIR, Employment Projections for NSW 2005-2010, October 2005

and TAFE NSW Enrolments Statistics
In absolute terms, employment is predicted to grow most in Property and Business Services (30,000 new jobs per annum) and Health and Community Services (30,000 new jobs per annum) until 2010. Large numbers of new jobs are also predicted for Retail Trade (almost 30,000 new jobs per annum) followed by Construction (13,700 new jobs per annum), and Accommodation, Chefs and Restaurants (11,700 new jobs per annum). These five areas are predicted to provide more than 80% of Australia’s new jobs over the next five years (Australian Jobs, 2005 and DEWR, 2006). These projections largely correspond with those of the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research except those projections relating to retail trade.

Figure 1: Average annual employment growth rates by industry, NSW, 2005-2010

Source: NIEIR, Employment Projections for 2005-2010, October 2005.


Occupation
The fastest growing areas by occupation relate to the professions. When considered in relation to the enrolment patterns of mature age students, this area of growth highlights the distance that needs to be bridged between many mature age people who are low skilled and the expanding areas of the economy.
Table 2: Fastest growing occupation levels

compared with ranking of TAFE NSW mature age enrolments by award


Growth by Occupational Level

TAFE NSW Level of Award

1. Professionals

1. Statement of Attainment

2. Associate Professionals

2. Accredited Short Course

3. Managers and Administrators

3. Certificate III

4. Elementary Workers

4. Certificate II

5. Intermediate Workers

5. TAFE Statement

6. Labourer

6. Certificate IV




7. TAFEPlus Statement




8. Certificate I




9. Diploma Level




10. College Statement

Source: NIEIR, Employment Projections for NSW 2005-2010, October 2005

and TAFE NSW Enrolments Statistics
It is important to note that the bulk of NSW employment remains in lower skilled occupations. Paradoxically, despite the prevalence of skills shortages, many workers with qualifications are employed in lower level jobs. In 2005, 35% of workers with a Certificate III or IV were in jobs requiring a Certificate II or less. On the one hand, this suggests a mismatch between the demand for skills and the type of skills being developed. Equally, however, it could be that those with Certificate III or IV qualifications were not in a position to compete for the higher level positions without further skill development and instead were competing for the lower level positions. This suggests that there is a need for skill sets and incremental pathways that lead people to higher qualifications in those types of jobs where employment will be growing.
F
igure 2: Forecast Employment Growth by ASCO Major Group NSW, 2005-2010

Source: NIEIR, Employment Projections for NSW 2005-2010, October 2005.
NSW regions have not shared equally in jobs growth which has been strongest along the Coast. New England and Western New South Wales are projected to continue to experience low levels of employment growth (DET Submission to IPART Review, p6).

Over the next five years, demand for labour in all occupational groups will be greater in metropolitan NSW than in non-metropolitan areas, with the exception of labourers, where employment growth is projected to be stronger outside cities (DET Submission to IPART Review, p6). This forecast needs to be considered alongside the pattern of enrolments for mature age people in TAFE which indicate a greater proportion of mature age people among the TAFE populations of rural and regional Institutes.



F
igure 3: Distribution of forecast employment growth by DET Regions, 2005-2010

Source: NIEIR, Employment Projections for NSW 2005-2010, October 2005.


References
Australian Bureau of Statistics, (2003), Employer Training Expenditure and Practices, Australia 2001-02, Summary of Findings, Catalogue no 6362.0, Canberra.

Access Economics, Future Demand for Vocational Education and Training in NSW.


Banks, G. (2004), An ageing Australia: small beer or big bucks? Presentation by the Chair, Productivity Commission, to the South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, Adelaide.

Cameron, R. The mature aged in transition: Innovative practice for reengagement, Southern Cross University, Paper to 2005 AVETRA Conference.


Chappell, C, Hawke, G, Rhodes, K and Solomon, N. (2003), Major Research Program for Older Workers, Stage 1 – the Conceptual Framework. Oval Research, University of Technology, Sydney.
Council on the Ageing, (2003),National Seniors Project as reported in FiftyPlus News, October 2003. http://www.cota.org.au/press/2003/matureworkers.htm
Cully, M. (2004), Older Equity in vocational education and training: research readings edited by Kaye Bowman. National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Adelaide.
Feinstein, L. Galindo-Rueda, F. and Vignoles, A. (2003), The labour market impact of adult education and training: A cohort analysis. Centre for Economics of Education, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.
Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, (2005), Review of the Skills Base in NSW and the Future Challenges for Vocational Education and Training - Issues Paper, NSW Government, Sydney.
Karmel, T. and Woods D. (2004), Lifelong learning and older workers. National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Adelaide.

Kennedy, S and Healey, D. (2003), A Note on educational attainment and labour force participation in Australia. Working Paper, Department of Treasury, Commonwealth Government, Canberra.

Miles, R (2006), New Approaches/Policy Drivers, Presentation Notes, TAFE NSW, Sydney.


Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (2005), Ageing and Employment Policies – Australia, Paris.
Productivity Commission (2005), Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra.
Sullivan, SE and Duplage, EA, 1997, “Recruiting and retaining older workers for the new millennium”, Business Horizons, vol. Nov/Dec, pp65-69.
Thomson, P; Dawe, S; Anlezark, A; & Bowman, K. (2005), The mature-aged and skill development activities: A systematic review of research, NCVER, Adelaide.
Windsor, L, Spoehr, J, and Wright P, (2005), Workforce Development Strategies and Older Workers in Australia. Paper presented at New Directions in Social Policy Conference, Centre for Public Policy, University of Melbourne.
Wooden, M. Vanden Heuvel, A. Cully, M. and Curtain, R. (2001), Barriers to training for older workers and possible policy solutions. Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs, Canberra.

Prepared by TAFE Educational Capability in consultation with counsellors, course information officers and other staff from across TAFE NSW. Research undertaken by Derek Waddell.





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